Non-Farm Payrolls
Importance:5/5
Release: First Friday of every month 12:30GMT For the all financial markets, and especially the Forex market, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is THE data release. It sends shock waves through the market and often causes huge moves within seconds. The “payrolls report” is the most comprehensive report on the state of employment and all its components in the US. An economy that is creating many new jobs is a healthy economy. If the payrolls report is in negative territory then more jobs are being lost than being created – very bad news for an economy. One of the major sectors of the report is wage inflation – if wages are going up, then it’s a fair bet that the Fed will look into raising interest rates.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Importance:2/5
Release: Third trading day of every month 14:00GMT The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index provides a detailed look at the health of the non-manufacturing sector in the US. It is much less of a market-mover than the manufacturing index
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Importance:4/5
Release: Third trading day of every month 14:00GMT The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index provides a detailed look at the health of the non-manufacturing sector in the US. It is much less of a market-mover than the manufacturing index.
Treasury International Capital data
Importance:3/5
Release: Second trading Monday of every month 13:00GMT This treasury data accounts for the flow of financial instruments (bonds, equities, money market funds etc) into the United States. It shows the level of foreign demand for US investments and the dollar. It is precisely this that makes it so important. If foreign investors are buying US investments they need to buy the US dollar to do so – thus a positive number is dollar positive. If the number is negative it is bad for the USD. This number is especially important due to the chronic shortfall in the US trade balance – a positive number is needed to offset the huge trade deficit
Housing Data: New Home sales and Existing Home sales
Importance:3/5
Release: Monthly Both home sales figures (released one day after the other) are measures of the housing market condition. Not only do house prices affect inflation (and thus interest rates), but if house prices are rising people feel more confident about their own prosperity and also spend more on furnishing their homes. All this boosts the US economy. Falling house prices suggest a recession.
ZEW – Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Importance: 4/5
Release: Monthly ZEW – the Centre for European Economic Research – releases each month reports on how financial experts see the strength of the German economy. The experts are asked for their opinions on all facets of the economy, looking at the current situation and how they feel the future looks. The final number presented represents the difference between those who are positive about the economy and those who are negative. For example, if 40% expect an improvement in the economy, 32% believe there will be a decline and 28% expect no change, the headline number will be 8% (40%-32%). The number may be positive or negative.
IFO Business sentiment
Importance: 3/5
Release: Monthly The IFO business sentiment report is released monthly and questions German companies about the present health of the German economy and how they see the coming 6 months. The data is presented using 100 as neutral – any number above 100 shows a positive business sentiment, a number below 100 represents negative business sentiment. The further the outcome is from 100, the stronger the sentiment.
The Tankan report
Importance: 4/5
Release: Quarterly Of all the data announcements coming out of Japan, it is the Tankan report that is the most eagerly anticipated. The Tankan is carried out by Japan’s central bank and questions Japanese firms about their future plans for pricing, employment and investment. This data is central to the Bank of Japan’s decision making on monetary policy. The final number released is set around 0, with 0 being neutral. Any positive number suggests a healthy outlook for the Japanese economy; a negative number represents an expectation of contraction. The further the outcome is from 0, the stronger the expectation and the bigger the move in the Forex markets.
Leading Economic Index
Importance: 3/5
Release: Monthly The Leading Economic Index is a combination of twelve major indicators in the Japanese economy. All the indicators are aggregated and this provides a firm prediction of the direction the economy is headed in. When the announcement is made, a final number is given, with 50 being neutral. Any number above 50 suggests a positive outlook for the Japanese economy, below 50 means an expectation of contraction. The further the outcome is from 50, the stronger the expectation.
Philadelphia Fed and (New York) Empire State Manufacturing Surveys
Importance:3/5
Release: Monthly The “Philly” Fed and Empire State Surveys are separately released indexes of manufacturing conditions within Philadelphia and New York State representing a number of industries. The surveys give a good idea of the manufacturing, and thus overall economic, health of these important regions and are correlated with the ISM manufacturing index.
